2,452 views Jan 6, 2026
Science of Superforecasting___Science of Superforecasting - Global Warming Rise: we blew past 1.5C, how about 2C, 2.5C, to 4C?

It looks like global average temperature has already blown past 1.5C. When will we cross 2.0? 2.5? 3.0?, 3.5? and even 4.0?

I chat about what 5 different prestigious climate groups think? I summarize the spread, and the aggregate mean, and then give the Beckwith Superforecast:)

What do you think? Are you a superforecaster, or do you just think that you are?

We already passed 1.5C - happened, in last few years

When do we pass 2.0C. Group spread is 2034 to 2039 with mean of 2037. Beckwith guess 2033.

How about 2.5C. Group spread is 2044 to 2052 with mean of 2048. Beckwith guess is 2041.

OK, what about passing 3.0C. Group spread is 2054 to 2065 with mean of 2060. Beckwith superforecast is 2050.

Anybody for 3.5C. Group spread is 2065 to 2077 with mean of 2072. Beckwith guess is 2058.

Finally, when will we cross 4.0C. Group spread is 2075 to 2090 with mean of 2084. Beckwith guess is 2066.

Of course, a supervolcano (natural or induced:) will negate all this since humanity likes to eat food...